South Asian sociopolitical, socioeconomic dynamics

Given the intricate South Asian sociopolitical dynamics, particularly illustrated by the events unfolding in Sri Lanka and the extravagant pre-wedding celebrations of Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant in India, we find ourselves at the crossroads of tradition, power, and the digital revolution. This juxtaposition offers a unique lens through which we can explore the narratives of wealth, influence, and political manoeuvring that define the region’s contemporary landscape.

The Ambani-Merchant pre-wedding celebration, an event that captivated digital platforms worldwide, epitomises the zenith of digital media’s capacity to magnify personal milestones into global spectacles. It’s a testament to the digital era’s prowess, where moments of personal joy transcend geographical boundaries, transforming into a shared experience for millions. This union wasn’t just a confluence of two individuals. Still, it symbolised the merging of Bollywood’s glamour with the sheer economic might of one of the world’s wealthiest families, thus underscoring the potent combination of wealth and media in shaping public discourse. 

Anant and Radhika took the stage with captivating speeches and the star of the event was Rihanna, the singer, not only at the event, but also due to her photographs with common men and women in India, which is a stark difference to the many Indian celebrities. The Ambanis pulled some of the powerful men and women in the world to the event. Microsoft Co-Founder Bill Gates looked young with his partner and Facebook supremo Mark Zuckerberg arrived with his wife, Priscilla Chan. It was refreshing to see Zuckerberg in an Indian kurta. Former US President Donald Trump’s powerful daughter Ivanka Trump appeared with her husband Jared Kushner. Donald Trump is the leading Republican contender for the US Presidential Election due in November. There were too many powerful people on the Ambani stage. 

In the midst of this celebration of love and opulence, the emotional vulnerability displayed by one of the planet’s richest men, Anant’s father, underscores a universal truth that transcends economic status: the deep, unyielding bond of family. It serves as a poignant reminder that beneath the layers of wealth and public personas, the core human emotions remain unchanged, striking a chord with audiences worldwide and demonstrating the unifying power of genuine, heartfelt moments. 

The Anant-Radhika event compelled me to re-read the controversial book, ‘The Polyester Prince,’ written by Hamish McDonald a long time ago. It is the story of Anant’s grandfather Dhirubhai Ambani. I quote this from ‘The Polyester Prince’: “At the end of 1958 Dhirubhai returned to India with his wife Kokilaben and first child, a son named Mukesh. They were expecting their second child [another son, Anil, was born in 1959, followed by daughters, Dipti, born in January 1961, and Nina, born in July 1962]. From all his years with Besse & Co. and all his evenings ‘studying the market,’ he had accumulated savings of just 29,000 East African Shillings, then worth $ 3,000, which his Besse colleague Susheel Kothari had reminded him would be just ‘chutney’ back in his homeland.”

Another page states: “Even so, Dhirubhai and his young family, eventually two boys and two girls, lived austerely in surroundings that were crowded, noisy, dirty. The two sons, Mukesh and Anil, who took over day-to-day management of Reliance in the late 1980s, may have had engineering degrees and MBAs from American universities, but their lean early years gave them a hungry ambition unusual in the second generation of a successful Indian business family.”

Dhirubhai Ambani was a maverick and one of the most controversial entrepreneurs of our time. From 1958 to 2024, the Ambanis have risen and India has risen beyond comprehension. South Asia, home to 25% of the world’s population, is a place to be now and the Gates to the Zuckerbergs provide a spectacle to the globe on this stage. For many it was a pre-wedding party; for me, it was a powerful statement to the world on a mix of economics, culture, art, and a great love story.

Basil’s return

Shifting the lens to the political arena of Sri Lanka, the narrative takes a dramatic turn with the return of Basil Rajapaksa. His arrival, met with a hero’s welcome, reignites the flames of hope among the supporters of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), a party in dire need of rejuvenation. 

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Basil, often hailed as the strategic mastermind behind the Rajapaksa political juggernaut, finds himself at the centre of a swirling vortex of expectations and scepticism. To his followers, he’s the modern-day Chanakya, equipped with the intellect and guile to navigate the murky waters of Sri Lankan politics. However, critics question the substance behind the veneer, labelling his strategic prowess as overstated. His followers worshipped him – a common occurrence in politics in Sri Lanka. 

Basil Rajapaksa’s return to the country in a crucial election period has created many rumours. Within the inner circle of the SLPP, there is a belief that they hold at least 20% of the vote, despite much opinion polling suggesting single-digit popularity. Since 2018, in all elections, the SLPP has proved its electoral muscle and the 2019 Presidential Election was the icing on the cake, polling 6.9 million (52%) votes for Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, since 2022, the SLPP has lost the edge drastically with defections from its own cohort; protégés and political mercenaries have been leaving the ship to protect their political interests. 

The rise of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) is primarily due to the SLPP voters being inclined to side with Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and the JVP, yearning for a change. Politics is the art of possibility and the Rajapaksas feel that they can recapture the voter base. Still, there are significant unknowns given the divided polity in the country. The political calculations are increasingly difficult even for the most brilliant minds and even Einstein may have struggled to understand the country’s terrain post-2022. 

If Mahinda is the face, Basil is the brain of the SLPP. This combination worked for the Rajapaksa family and the SLPP for years and they will be banking on the same this time too. The return of the ‘brain’ has increasingly pushed a narrative that the SLPP is gunning for a Parliamentary Election before the Presidential Election, due before 17 October. It will be interesting to see how many MPs are willing to put out their necks for a race for a Parliamentary Election now. It’s not rocket science; given the public uproar against politicians, we may not see many parliamentarians in the next Parliament, whether the election is now or in 2025.

The Presidential Election is due for certain before 17 October and still the SLPP bloc, whether it’s 10%, 20%, or 30%, will have a significant impact on the final result, where the winning candidate needs a 50% plus one vote, unless he/she wins in a second count, which has never happened in Sri Lanka’s Presidential Elections since 1982. 

Basil Rajapaksa, more than anyone else, knows that staying in power in some form, even if you don’t have full control, is strategically important, given AKD’s public promise that wrongdoers will unfailingly be punished. Since 2014, AKD has had a significant share of the anti-corruption narrative and with his rise for a possible presidency in 2024, he has taken the anti-corruption narrative to a different level.

This period marks a critical juncture for the Rajapaksa family and the SLPP, as they grapple with dwindling support and the colossal task of reinventing their political narrative in the face of adversity. The narrative around Basil’s return and the strategic manoeuvres anticipated in the run-up to crucial elections underscore the complexity of political survival and ambition, entwined with the hopes and disillusionments of a nation’s populace.

Gotabaya’s ‘conspiracy’

Amid these developments, the resurgence of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, with the launch of his book, ‘The Conspiracy,’ adds another layer to Sri Lanka’s political drama. His narrative, aimed at refuting the allegations and circumstances that led to his ousting, has sparked a frenzy on social media platforms, polarising opinions. This strategic re-entry into the public sphere, especially timed with Basil’s return, suggests a concerted effort to reclaim narrative control and reassert the Rajapaksa influence at a pivotal moment in Sri Lanka’s political timeline. 

The book, which was launched without an event, directly hit bookstores at 9.30 a.m. on 7 March, in both English and Sinhala. I reviewed the book of 179 pages and 15 chapters. The chapters were the introduction, prejudices of external parties, the economy in 2019, the global Covid-19 pandemic, coping with the economic fallout, lives first: the vaccination drive, politics of a two-thirds majority, aborted FDI and organic farming initiatives, shortages, queues and mob violence, destabilisation by fifth columnists, difficult economic policy choices, misconstructions and blame, the politics of regime change, the law and order debacle, and the postscript.

As per the English copy, it is purely self-defence rather than creating public controversy. The cover page states: ‘How internationally-sponsored regime change made a mockery of the democracy of Sri Lanka’. Written under his byline and in first person, former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has been careful in the choice of words and no one can take this book to court. I have read Victor Ivan’s book against former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, which was a direct personal attack on her, but Gotabaya Rajapakasa’s book does not reveal much. If anyone was looking for a tell-all book, this is not it. 

Former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has been silent since he stepped down from the all-powerful executive presidency in 2022 and anyone would have expected him to reveal more, especially given the hype around the book on 6 March. Most of the stories were in the public domain, narrated by other people, through public discourse and rumours and especially through a controversial book by former Rajapaksa confidant and aide, Wimal Weerawansa. 

Weerawansa was the first one to charge publicly that the ‘Aragalaya’ had been orchestrated by foreign actors. His book ‘Nine: The Hidden Story’ revealed a lot more, but not many took him seriously. He openly named US Ambassador Julie Chung as the mastermind. The US Ambassador refuted the allegations. However, Gotabaya has not mentioned any US hand in his ousting from the presidency. There is no direct reference to any superpower, be it the US, India, or China. While there were plenty of rumours and much discourse against the behaviour of senior military leaders, the book has clearly not blamed them; in fact Gotabaya Rajapaksa has even mentioned then Army Commander Shavendra Silva and his daughter’s inability to receive an education in the US. 

I don’t wish to select quotes from the book as it may not be fair to the author given the subject’s sensitivity. He has not blamed the Rajapaksa family, though many suspected that he was ousted by his own family. Presidential aspirant Dilith Jayaweera of the Mawbima Janatha Party (MJP) has publicly blamed the Rajapaksa family for the downfall of his friend Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, Gotabaya has revealed nothing against his family. 

When asked why he had not moved more rapidly, former President J.R. Jayewardene famously said at a press conference held with then Indian Premier Rajiv Gandhi after the signing of the Indo-Lanka Accord: “It is a lack of courage on my part, a lack of intelligence on my part, a lack of foresight on my part.” This is a reflection of the plight of a public leader. Whether it’s a Kennedy, a Gandhi, a Jayewardene, or a Rajapaksa, the buck stops with you, as a leader. Right at the top is a lonely place. Conspiracies, betrayals, and stabbing are part of the deal. 

Ranil’s posturing

Currently, President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s strategic posturing, reminiscent of Machiavellian tact, illuminates the artful dance of governance and powerplay. His policy moves, including the reduction of electricity tariffs and promises of public sector salary hikes, are calculated gestures aimed at solidifying his appeal to the electorate. He is kicking off his campaign from Kuliyapitiya today – the first political rally after he took over as the President, a rally under the United National Party (UNP) banner. 

Also, he spoke at the funeral of the first Finance Minister of the open economy of Sri Lanka, Ronnie de Mel, and evoked a personal story about how the late de Mel played the middleman between Jayewardene and JVP Founder Rohana Wijeweera for a trade-off. Wickremesinghe, historically, has seldom spoken about his uncle Jayewardene in his speeches. In the last six months, he has spoken about Jayewardene multiple times. Also, he made news for appointing a possible political cabinet gearing up for his Presidential Election campaign. Jayewardene did a similar thing in preparation for the 1977 Parliamentary Election. 

Historians K.M. de Silva and Howard Wriggins captured the story in Vol. 2 of the J.R. Jayewardene political biography. I quote: “On the morning of 29th January, JR had summoned A.B. Talagune (then Assistant Secretary of the UNP) to his Ward Place residence and instructed him to prepare a set of ‘ballot papers’ for the meeting at 9.30 a.m. of the UNP’s candidates for the forthcoming General Election. None of the candidates summoned for this meeting were aware that they would be expected to vote for the election of a party leadership committee of ten members, which would assist JR in the election campaign. When they arrived they were told that each of them was expected to set down the names of ten persons for the committee, in any order they liked, with the proviso that their lists should contain names of some minority representatives to reflect the country’s multi ethnic/religious character. The party candidates were taken by surprise. In springing this on them, JR’s idea was to prevent any divisive campaigning for the committee. This he clearly achieved. One person suggested that they be given three days to reflect on this, but JR responded by saying that they would not be given even three minutes. The election proceeded without a hitch thereafter. After each of the candidates had filled his/her ballot paper, the then Party Secretary Daham Wimalasena collected them and he, along with Talagune, proceeded to count the votes cast, this took an hour and 40 minutes.

“JR announced that the person who had secured the highest number of votes would chair the election committee and would have deputies on his behalf during his absence. He was due to visit Australia at the end of February. At lunchtime he announced the results, which were as follows: R. Premadasa (118), Gamini Dissanayake (108), A.C.S. Hameed (93), K.W. Devanayagam (74), Gamini Jayasuriya (73), Ronnie de Mel (65), E.L. Senanayake (65), Lalith Athulathmudali (62), Cyril Mathew (41), E.L.B. Hurulle (38).

“The party’s candidates were unaware that they were electing not merely an ad hoc committee for the forthcoming General Elections, but the nucleus of a cabinet as well. For JR was very confident that the UNP would win the election comfortably. He was certain that R. Premadasa would top the list, but he was genuinely surprised at the narrow margin he secured over Gamini Dissanayake.”

Times are different from 1977 to 2024. Wickremesinghe took a different form to appoint his political cabinet from different parties, his political enemies, and loyalists to gear up for the Presidential Election. If JR knew that he was certainly going to win, Wickremesinghe knows that the numbers are against him – the art of possibility is the only possibility. However, there is still uncertainty on whether he will run for the presidency or whether there will be a Parliamentary Election first. AKD has peaked. Premadasa is holding ground. Jayaweera is battling hard. There could be others joining the fray. 

Anant revealed the power of love. Basil returned to the game. Gotabaya returned and revealed himself. Wickremesinghe is taking it to the wire.

Source: themorning.lk